India IT Jobs This Week: TCS Ties Pay Hikes to Conditions, Silent Layoffs Cross 25,000 — But GCCs Are Quietly Hiring at Scale

The June quarter earnings season kicked off on July 9 with TCS reporting revenue of $7.6 billion — nearly flat sequentially, up just 2.7% year-on-year in dollar terms. The number that actually matters for consultants: TCS's annualized AI revenue touched $2.6 billion, growing 13.6% in a single quarter. When AI revenue grows 13.6% QoQ while total revenue stays flat, that's not diversification. That's substitution.

Alongside the results, TCS has attached conditions to pay hikes and promotions this cycle. If you've been through an appraisal discussion at a large services firm recently, you already know what "conditions" means in practice — billability, utilization, and increasingly, demonstrated AI-adjacent skills. Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech report in the coming days, and the commentary on headcount and fresher intake will matter more than the revenue numbers.

The layoffs nobody is announcing

Industry estimates now put 2026 tech job cuts in India at 25,000–35,000 — but you won't see most of them in headlines. Companies are moving people out through performance evaluations, role eliminations, and restructuring rather than announced layoffs. The driver has shifted too: this round isn't about weak demand. It's automation removing duplicate roles and thinning middle-management layers.

On the startup side, around 1,700 employees were laid off across three Indian startups in Q1 2026 — up from 1,102 in the same period last year — including roughly 500 at Flipkart through its annual performance review cycle.

For ERP consultants specifically, this cuts both ways. Routine configuration, standard report development, and L2 support work are exactly the categories being compressed. Complex integration work, data migration judgment calls, and cross-module functional expertise are not — yet.

The other side of the ledger

Here's what the layoff headlines miss: hiring data is recovering at the same time. Naukri's JobSpeak index showed the white-collar market up 12% year-on-year, with fresher hiring up 17% and demand for 20+ LPA roles up 23%. A separate industry report projects IT hiring to grow 8.5% next year.

The biggest structural shift is happening in GCCs. Global Capability Centres are projected to add 1.2–1.4 lakh net new roles in India in 2026 — more than offsetting services-side layoffs. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all expanding Bengaluru operations for AI and deep-tech roles, with Amazon committing $35 billion and Microsoft $17.5 billion to India through the decade.

For Oracle, Salesforce, and SAP professionals, this matters because GCCs of large enterprises run their own ERP landscapes in-house. A Fusion techno-functional consultant at a captive earns differently — and works differently — than the same profile at a services firm. The catch: GCC roles demand deeper specialisation and are far less accessible to freshers.

The reverse migration reality check

A survey published July 8 confirmed what many suspected: H-1B professionals returning to India amid US layoffs and the steep visa fee regime are being rehired at significantly lower salaries. Around 36% of surveyed professionals said colleagues had already returned; another 17% knew people planning to. The "US-return" tag still gets interviews — but recruiters are anchoring salary expectations down the moment they see a relocation.

What this means for you

The market isn't shrinking. It's bifurcating. The gap between a consultant doing routine BIP report changes and one who can own an end-to-end OIC integration with proper fault handling is widening every quarter — in both job security and compensation. Track where you sit on that line honestly.